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AUD/USD ended last week at 0.6326, marking its fifth gain in six weeks, driven by concerns over US trade policies and improving risk sentiment. Key influences this week include US trade policy, interest rate meetings, and Australia's employment report, expected to show a gain of 20,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. A stronger jobs report could lead the RBA to hold rates steady in April, while technical analysis suggests potential for further gains towards the 200-day moving average at 0.6525-0.6535.
US stock markets fell, with the US 500 entering correction territory amid trade war concerns and geopolitical tensions. The Australia 200 also declined, influenced by a major US bank downgrading Australian equities due to trade risks. Key economic indicators, including job openings and inflation rates, showed mixed results, while upcoming data releases are anticipated to impact market sentiment.
All three major US stock indices reached record highs, with the Dow Jones surpassing 45,000, buoyed by positive remarks from Fed Chair Powell on economic resilience and inflation progress. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 also hit a new peak, though momentum waned after Australia's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 0.8%, the weakest since the 1990s recession. Key economic indicators are set for release next week, including the RBA's interest rate decision and US CPI data.
AUD/USD rebounded last week, closing at 0.6582, breaking a five-week losing streak despite US dollar strength following Trump's election victory. The upcoming labour force report on November 14 is crucial, with expectations of 20,000 new jobs and a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Technical analysis suggests resistance at 0.6630 and a possible decline towards 0.6400.
US equity markets surged following a red sweep in the presidential election and a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, bringing the Federal Funds rate to 4.50%-4.75%. The ASX 200 also rose by approximately 2%, supported by US market trends, while the RBA maintained its rate at 4.35%. Key economic indicators are set for release next week, including US CPI and Australia's employment report.
The ASX 200 rose 51 points (0.62%) to 8335, following a strong labor report that showed unexpected job growth, challenging RBA rate cut hopes. Major banks and real estate stocks saw gains, while mining stocks faced declines amid anticipated fiscal stimulus from China. Star Entertainment's license remains suspended, reflecting ongoing compliance issues.
Bjorn Jarvis
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